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This is the exact problem that is causing this to become such a talked-about issue: doing "the math" is not true justification for concern. It's just throwing around numbers. I mean, seriously, does anyone REALLY believe that JUST because they bought GTA IV (supposedly 6 million people), ALL of them will NOT go see Iron Man? That's a ridiculous claim! There are so many variables to every individual person's considerations that there is no realistic way to determine how big of an impact GTA IV will actually have.
Anyway, thankfully you agree with me on this argument. And you're right - they're going to use GTA IV as a scapegoat no matter what if it doesn't perform as expected. I don't really know what to predict right now but I am VERY anxious to see how this weekend goes. I'll definitely be reporting back to everyone on Monday night/Tuesday after the GTA IV launch, Thursday night after the midnight showings, and Friday after the regular opening.
What's also going to big an even bigger pull for GTAIV is it's new multiplayer design, which I think everyone and their mother has been waiting or wanting since the third title. I have friends ranging from late teens to late their 30's, married, single, who are going nuts at the thought of playing GTA online.
Do I think it's going to hurt Iron-Man sales? I think its going to take a sizeable chunk of the audience in some form. Mainly because the game will have lots to do in terms of immersion. And knowing how rabid people "are" with certain game franchises, is why I believe it could be a factor in IM sales taking somewhat of a hit. People are going and having midnight release parties for the damn game later today.
Basically, this game is going to sell like an Aids cure.
That's not entirely true. If I take a gal to the movie lets say I might spend 9 bucks for the both of us, plus another 10-15 on two large drinks, a popcorn and maybe some candy. Who the hell goes to the theater and JUST sees a movie without any other concessions? All of a sudden that 'can be' a 30+ buck run at the movies easy. Now that does start affecting the decision making process.
Conclusion: GTA4 will definitely take a chunk out of Iron Man. Movie Studio Distribution Heads should take into consideration when they launch a movie cause in this case - it will matter.
Course it won't stop me from still going to see IM eventually ;)
The fact remains that GTA's buzz online and with young people surpasses Iron Man's by far. While I think Iron Man will be extremely successful b/c it's been marketed better than any film this summer sans The Dark Knight, even if it flies past $70 mill its first wke, GTA4 will have people asking, "Yeah, but what if we took that video game out of the equation, how much bigger?"
The other thing we're not considering is that GTA and Iron Man are opening worldwide at the same time, so it's more than domestic grosses. I think that in this case those "dots" do exist. It's not just about the buyers of GTA4 either, b/c everyone who cops this game will have 5 people easy at their house staring in awe for the entire weekend. Whereas, with Iron Man this is not possible.
6 Million people buy GTA IV. A lot of those copies purchased tonight or tomorrow. Giving people lots of time to play and have fun. But here's my thing: How many of those people would have gone and seen Iron Man anyway? Can anyone guarantee a number? Not really. And who is to say that a lot of those people aren't going to go see it anyway? So at the very most...A couple million people don't go see it for one reason or another thats related to GTA IV. I honestly don't think that video games make that big of an impact on the movies industry right now. Maybe in the future, not right now.
@ Bryan: Yes, video games are great, love em myself. But you should read Peter's rant. Movies still make more money right now and they have much cheaper prices. DVD/Blu-Ray sales rake in a ton of loot. The reason video game companies make so much money? Games at $50 or $60 bucks a pop and an initial investment of $300+ for the console before you can even play. For one 360 and a copy of GTA IV you can go see...What, around 90 movies? (give or take a few depending on your area's pricing.)
Talk to me when, like Spiderman 3 did last year, 22.5 million people buy a video game in the first three days. We're still a little ways away from that for sure.
The End
Please make the gas go down!
Don't like gas prices? Stop driving.
I don't want to turn this comment thread into a political/philosoph circle-jerk, but seriously, there's bigger problems than gas prices.
Feel fortunate you live in a country and were born at a time when we have things like Iron Man the Movie and GTA-IV.
I reiterate; don't like gas prices? Stop driving.
In any case if this were all true then we would see an enormous spike in Iron Man's ticket sales a week later wouldn't we? Either way I don't care. I'm playing GTA 4 and watching Iron Man. Time management, go figure, I know that's a foreign concept for most Americans.
Of course, as stated above, your mileage will vary.
I choose to believe that if IRON MAN does poorly it is because Robert Downey Jr. Has offended the african american population with tropic thunder. Prove me wrong. You can't. But it's an equally good Cable News Explanation. Here's another one. Iron man doesn't speak to Christian Americans because he represents science over religion. Iron man isn't american enough. The advertising hasn't portrayed him rapped in a flag and robert downey jr didn't wear a flag pin on his lappel. Tony Start is also seen as too elitist for the heartland.
Arguing with cable news is an imagination problem not a analytical one. Facts just get in the way for them you know.
What the hell are you talking about? Of course people want to spend that much on videogames. Look at the worldwide sales of the Wii, 360, and PS3 combined.
There's a reason why there are now 3 viable game consoles on the market today. PEOPLE ARE INVESTING INTO GAMES. And comments like the ones Jimbo makes only proves how much people have no idea what influence the gaming industry does have. Videogames are retarded? But talking and having a website about films isn't? Whats the difference?
It's all pop culture material.
Saturday, I will be having a date night with my wife, going for dinner and to see Iron Man while my parents watch our baby.
I have always been a big gamer, but in the same respect, I have always been a film buff. The biggest video game in years still isn't going to keep me from an amazing looking superhero movie!
"In even more Halo 3 related news, initial sales for Master Chief’s latest incarnation are coming in, and the Xbox 360 exclusive title has sold through 1.8 million copies during the first 8 hours of release. Microsoft has already made an estimated 140.4 million dollars and is expected to cash-in on 191.1 million dollars before the end of the day. This would put Halo 3 at the top of the list for any form of entertainment’s top “one day salesâ€Â
http://news.filefront.com/current-halo-3-sales-...
To say that video games have no 'influence ' or impact is just wrong. Me? I'm sure I can manage to enjoy both GTA4 and Iron Man.
I think alot of people will do the same
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoYorK3E4aM
Anyway, let me start out by saying that I do play and love video games. I am 28 years old and admittedly love them. I have friends and associates, including my wife, that play them also. Sure, GTA4 will make boat loads of money. Tons, believe me people. But it still comes dowon to this, like he was trying to explain above, a video game cost $50-60, movies cost like say $10 for one ticket to be safe. Of course the game is going to do more. No question about it.
Now, will it cut into Iron Man's take? Maybe a little bit, possible 10-12 million. I am still guessing that Iron Man does like 80-85 million. Which is a safe guess but still is going to make the studio happy. Sure, without the game being released the same week it probably would have done 100+ mil. But you have other things that everyone is not taking into consideration out of all of this. I mean, say it rains the entire weekend in certain areas, people naturally stay inside and will play games lol, or what about, alot of parents will not be letting their kids play the game, to violent or whatever, they will be seeing the movie I bet you. Sure you have some that are absolutely addicted to games, lol, that wont ever change, but me being an avid gamer I can guarantee you that I will see it. Hell, what about all of the guys, and they are the majority gamers sorry ladies, that have girl friends or wives lol, you think all of the females are going to just want to stay home on a weekend night and let their man play video games when they can take them out to a movie that has been promoting pretty well on television, which I am sure all of them have seen the adds for? I dont think so. In the end, the video game industry will win by profits, but not in terms of people. So everyone is really right here, but unless the price of movies jumps up to $50-60 a ticket it wont change the amount of people that go see the movies. That will always be more then the amount of people that BOUGHT the video game.... Anthony
Heads = Iron Man and a trip to the Gas Station
Tails = GTAIV
Anybody else wanna call it?
@all - the most important thing about GTA v IRON MAN is not the nominal cost of the product... it's the time and attention that one steals from the other. The best part in all of this is how the BO forecasts have been raised recently, as though the NYT called and said they needed a "Iron Man Disappoints with Only $100M" story next week.
I guess its a mute point.
Iron man is an incredible movie (saw it last night) and a video game is not going to stop people from attending.
-Goes back to playing GTA 4-
Considering the film has fantastic reviews and made 104 million over the weekend, I think it's safe to say you, and this article, were off base.